Aviasales experts compared how the average price for a flight from Moscow to the US has changed over the past three years and how several factors simultaneously influenced the cost.
Including the bankruptcy of Transaero, the resumption and termination of flights by the American airline Delta, the cancellation Singapore Airlines Moscow-Houston flights and visa complications.
According to the service, 751,000 of all bookings from Russia to the United States are made to Moscow. Therefore, the experts studied the change in average ticket prices specifically from the capital.
"It's worth noting that price peaks in August and the New Year holidays, when Russians travel most frequently and, accordingly, demand increases. For example, in August 2017, before visa complications, the average bill (57,876 rubles) was 221₽ higher than the annual average (47,477 rubles), and travel was 151₽ more frequent than in other months." — the company’s press service noted.
The first impetus for a decline in demand for American destinations, according to analysts, Aviasales, The bankruptcy of Transaero in October 2015 was a turning point. Round-trip tickets for 17,000 rubles disappeared, and travelers to America significantly declined—in November, bookings fell by 201,000 rubles, and the average ticket fell by 71,000 rubles. Following this, in December, the American airline Delta announced its withdrawal from the Russian market. However, over the past three years, it has repeatedly announced its departure and then return for the summer.
In January 2016, after Delta stopped flying, we saw a drop in demand by 20% and, interestingly, a drop in average ticket prices by 2.5%. In May of that year, Delta resumed flights to Russia, and demand immediately increased by 32%, while the average ticket increased by 3%. However, it's important to note that the increase in demand in May wasn't due to the carrier's arrival, but simply the high holiday season. That same summer, Singapore Airlines cancelled flights from Moscow to Houston. However, since the route, although in demand, was specific, the average ticket remained virtually unchanged. In September 2016, Delta again stopped flying to Russia, and with that, the average ticket decreased by 2% and demand by 15%. Last May, Delta returned to Russia once again, but demand didn't increase; instead, it fell by 41%, and the average ticket increased by 51%, according to the company. Incidentally, in September, after Delta's departure and the visa restrictions, flights decreased by 20%, and the average ticket increased by 0.67%," the company explains the nuances of demand for the route.
According to the study Aviasales, Aeroflot, with its competitors leaving, is keeping prices low because there are a wide range of connecting flights between Russia and the US, offering equally attractive options. Russians most frequently fly to New York, Los Angeles, Miami, and Washington. Aeroflot currently serves all four routes. While the cheapest Moscow-New York ticket on the national carrier starts at 25,000 rubles, a connecting ticket in Paris is only 4,000 rubles cheaper.
To avoid searching for flight discounts yourself, Aviasales experts recommend installing the abnormally low price bot in any messenger—Viber, Telegram, Facebook Messenger, or Slack. Select your desired dates and destinations, and the bot will immediately send you a link as soon as it finds your ticket: whether it's Moscow to New York for 18,000 rubles or St. Petersburg to Miami for 23,000.
Source: trn-news.ru